منابع مشابه
Anchoring Expectations of Inflation
This paper studies existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in a monetary model in which fiscal policy is Ricardian. The innovation of the paper is to model agents’ expectations as endogenous probabilities which are determined in equilibrium. Since economies with a Ricardian fiscal policy typically exhibit indeterminacy of equilibrium when the monetary policy instrument is the short-term interes...
متن کاملDisagreement about Inflation Expectations
Analyzing 50 years of inflation expectations data from several sources, we document substantial disagreement among both consumers and professional economists about expected future inflation. Moreover, this disagreement shows substantial variation through time, moving with inflation, the absolute value of the change in inflation, and relative price variability. We argue that a satisfactory model...
متن کاملThe economics of the Phillips curve: Formation of inflation expectations versus incorporation of inflation expectations
This paper examines the theory of the Phillips curve, focusing on the distinction between “formation” of inflation expectations and “incorporation” of inflation expectations. Phillips curve theory has largely focused on the former. Explaining the Phillips curve by reference to expectation formation keeps Phillips curve theory in the policy orbit of natural rate thinking where there is no welfar...
متن کاملUnderstanding survey based inflation expectations
Survey based measures of inflation expectations are not informationally efficient yet carry important information about future inflation. This paper explores the economic significance of informational inefficiencies of survey expectations. A model selection algorithm is applied to the inflation expectations of households and professionals using a large panel of macroeconomic data. The expectati...
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This paper analyses the impact of the monetary regime change from the Bundesbank to the ECB in 1999 on inflation expectations. In the theoretical part, the Barro-Gordon model is used to derive the potential effect of a new central bank on inflation, inflation expectations and forecast errors. The econometric investigation is based on a flexible specification of expectation formation which allow...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2006
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.890659